Emigration, diaspora vote and the shrinking electorate
Status: ongoing
Summary
The 2023 Census recorded 2,402,113 residents, more than 420,000 fewer than the 2011 count of about 2.83 million. INSTAT attributes the decline mainly to emigration, with low fertility as a second factor. Preliminary figures put the working-age population at 1,555,080, down 18.3% from 2011. The census count itself has been disputed by the opposition and by a demographic expert, who argue that it overstates the resident population.
In the 11 May 2025 election the diaspora vote went about 61% to PS, according to a University of Tirana analysis, and diaspora ballots were decisive in some districts. Registration was 294,155 Albanians abroad, of whom 245,975 were approved (CEC, March 2025, as reported). Whether emigration removes opposition voters is a hypothesis: no peer-reviewed study tested it, and the diaspora vote cuts in favour of PS.
Key facts
- Census 2023: 2,402,113 residents (published 28 June 2024), down from about 2.83 million in 2011 (loss of more than 420,000).
- Census: INSTAT attributes the decline mainly to emigration, with low fertility as a second factor. One report says natural increase was about 88,000 people over the period.
- Emigration totals vary by source: about 429,000 left in 13 years (Top Channel headline on the census); about 50,000 a year, or 600,000 over 12 years (second report).
- Preliminary count of persons refusing the census: 29,355 (1.04%).
- Diaspora vote 2025: about 61.15% PS, 23.54% PD coalition (University of Tirana analysis, citing CEC data).
- Diaspora registration 2025: 294,155 registered, 245,975 approved (CEC, March 2025, as reported).
- Turnout 2025 fell about 12% of 2021 voters (roughly 200,000), per a Tirana Times piece citing BIRN and Reporter.al; single-outlet interpretation linked to emigration.
The record
Four lists kept apart on purpose: what is established, what is only alleged, what is still open, and what those concerned said.
What is proven (2)
Established by documents or official records, as stated in the research. A recorded charge or indictment proves only that the accusation was made.
- The census headline figures and the emigration-led decline as stated by INSTAT (secondary reports).
- The 2025 diaspora vote shares as analysed by a University of Tirana researcher.
What is alleged (1)
Accusations, not findings. Those accused are presumed innocent.
- AllegationThat emigration removes discontented voters from the electorate and thus keeps PS in power (not established by data in this pass).
Allegations and who made them (2)
Each line is an allegation as recorded, with the person or body that made it where the record names them.
- AllegationMass emigration gives the government an easier political position because the diaspora cannot vote in practice and there are fewer people to persuade (UCL analysis, argument not measurement).
- AllegationThe opposition disputes the census count (political claim).
Open questions (3)
- Turnout by region and by diaspora for 2025 (CEC primary data not checked).
- Whether the voting changes for diaspora (in-country voting only for most; out-of-country voting first used in 2025) moved seats.
- Peer-reviewed analysis of emigration and vote shares.
Responses (1)
Responses of the people and organisations concerned, as recorded.
- Government response on emigration and the census not found in this pass.
Timeline
Full timeline →Other
INSTAT publishes 2023 Census: 2,402,113 residents, down more than 420,000 since 2011
INSTAT published the census count of 2,402,113 residents. INSTAT attributes the decline mainly to emigration, with low fertility as a second factor. Preliminary working-age population: 1,555,080, down 18.3% from 2011. The opposition and a demographic expert dispute the figure.
Parliament
Parliamentary election: PS wins, Rama secures fourth term (about 52% of the vote)
PS won the 11 May 2025 election. Vote share reported as 52.1% (ODIHR-context summary) or 52.2% (other reports). Seat count is disputed: 83 seats in Tirana Times and(ev-2025-05-11-election-83-seats), 82 in another report, and 74 in a third. The PD-led coalition is reported to have won about 50 seats. Diaspora vote: about 61% PS. PD disputes the result.
Sources for this record
Every source the research cites for this record, grouped by its source label. 8 sources.
Source label: VerifiedVerified · 2 sources
- Publisher
- Al Jazeera
- Date
- 13 May 2025
- Publisher
- Heinrich Boell Stiftung
- Date
- 18 Feb 2025
Source label: Officially reportedOfficially reported · 6 sources
- Publisher
- Top Channel
- Date
- 28 Jun 2024
- Publisher
- Tirana Times
- Date
- 28 Jun 2024
- Publisher
- Citizens.al
- Date
- 6 Feb 2025
- Publisher
- UCL
- Date
- Nov 2022
- Publisher
- Who Governs Europe (Ines Stasa, University of Tirana)
- Date
- 2025
- Publisher
- Citizens.al
- Date
- 28 Jun 2024